Received 25.02.2023, Revised 05.05.2023, Accepted 06.06.2023
The spread of counterfeit goods is an urgent problem of our time on a global scale with a multibilliondollar physical circulation. The aim of the article is to monitor the influence of factors on the dynamics of changes in the size of counterfeit goods and to substantiate its predictive indicators. During the research, the following methods were used: theoretical, tabular, analytical, generalization, statistical, synthesis, abstraction, forecasting, modeling, experiment. The article examines the essence of the phenomenon of counterfeiting as an offense in the field of intellectual property, specifies its negative consequences. Global trends in trade for counterfeit and fake goods based on the European GTRIC methodology are demonstrated; the ranking of the countries of origin of counterfeit goods was analyzed, as well as the ranking of industries affected by counterfeiting was studied. The article outlines the scale of counterfeiting in Ukraine, substantiates the connection with the economic security of the state. It was emphasized that the ability to diagnose indicators of influence and counteract the spread of counterfeit products is a strategic task of the state in the direction of achieving security parameters. It is argued that the level of corruption, the ease of doing business and the protection of property rights in the country affect the volume of counterfeiting, and therefore it is proposed to investigate the nature of their influence using appropriate indicators (Corruption Perceptions Index, position in the Doing Business ranking, International Property Rights Index) and mathematical apparatus. On the basis of mathematical models, the basic functions of which are radial, a model of the dependence of effective indicators (volume of counterfeiting and budget losses) on justified indicators has been developed. As a result of the research, it was established that improving the state of the selected indicators has a positive effect on the resulting indicator. At the same time, the insufficient effectiveness of their influence determines the prospects for further exploration of levers for additional improvement of their individual components. The practical significance of the study is the substantiation of the system of indicators of influence on the volume of counterfeiting, and, based on them, the construction of an economic-mathematical apparatus that will allow forecasting its dynamics
counterfeit goods; violation of intellectual property rights; shadow economy; indicators of influence on the volume of counterfeiting and budget losses; mathematical model with radial basis functions
Retrieved from Volume 1, No. 1. 2023
Pages 26-40
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